What if you invested regularly—but directed each day’s purchases toward stocks the market may have unfairly punished?
This experiment applies opportunistic dollar-cost averaging: investing small amounts regularly in companies whose share prices appear too low relative to their fundamentals, potentially because investors have overreacted to public news.
The same dollars. Two paths.
Profit & loss over time
Closing value minus money contributed. Each actual purchase is matched with the same dollars in SPY, an S&P 500 fund. Deposits themselves are not profits.
Yumurai portfolioS&P 500 · SPY
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Portfolio mix
Where the money sits
Share of current portfolio value. Concentration can amplify both gains and losses.
Behind the result
What moved the portfolio
The five largest gains and five largest losses in dollars among current holdings, measured against their purchase cost.
All remaining holdings are included in the portfolio total above.
Research
Research for the next four purchases
Warm-up run. These are baseline-value selections. The model did not yet have an earlier valuation snapshot needed to establish price overreaction.
Open a company for its rationale, portfolio fit, and risks. Choose four $5 purchases. Scores describe the research close; the opening price can change the opportunity.
What the scores and labels mean
Scores
Both run from 0 to 100. Higher is more favorable; neither is a measured probability.
- Opportunity
- The overall research score used to rank companies. It combines overreaction, remaining valuation upside, selling versus business damage, permanent-loss protection, recovery prospects, and evidence quality.
- Overreaction
- The research judgment of whether an event caused excessive selling relative to its likely effect on the business.
Purchase eligibility
Eligibility is separate from the score. A high score can still carry a purchase restriction.
- Candidate
- Meets the research eligibility rules. This is an option to evaluate, not a recommendation to buy.
- Not approved
- A purchase restriction applies, including the 5% issuer position cap.
Labels stay tied to their research review when purchases are recorded. Earlier reviews retain their historical labels.
Expand a company to see its valuation, portfolio fit, rationale, and risks. Open “Scenarios, scores & sources” for the full breakdown.
Model 1.7.1 keeps two separate signals. You choose purchases independently.
- Opportunity
- A 0–100 score of prospective fundamental attractiveness over three years, including cash distributions and a downside penalty.
- Overreaction probability
- The estimated chance that excessive punishment for public news remains in the price. For example, 70% means a research-based 70% probability of that proposition. It does not mean a 70% probability of profit. Empirical calibration has not been established.
Each breakdown explains the news, price response, evidence for and against overreaction, uncertainty and what would change the estimate. Prior model scores retain their original definitions.
Model 1.7 keeps two separate scores from 0 to 100. Higher is more favorable. They are judgments, not probabilities of profit, and are never blended to choose purchases.
- Opportunity
- How attractive the current price looks against three 36-month business outcomes, including distributions and a penalty for losses. It asks whether the stock offers an attractive fundamental purchase opportunity.
- Overreaction
- How strongly the evidence supports excessive event-related selling, comparing benchmark-relative punishment with business damage in paired with-event and without-event scenarios. “Not established” means that comparison is unavailable; zero means the calculation found no positive excess punishment.
- Evaluation history
- New evaluation, Continuing evaluation, Reopened evaluation, Reassessment due, or Closed evaluation tells you where the research stands. More attractive, Less attractive, Little changed, Mixed changes, or No prior comparison describes the score change, with its reasons in the breakdown.
- Purchase eligibility
- Within purchase limits, Position limit reached, Restricted, Research incomplete, or Evaluation closed describes whether the purchase rules permit a new $5 purchase. It adds no score points.
Each purchase retains its original scores, evidence, and labels for later performance analysis. Earlier model versions keep their own definitions. The displayed rank always records the original Opportunity order.
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Holdings
Current portfolio
Holdings
Current portfolio
Purchase record
Complete history
Purchase record
Complete history
| Purchased | Company | Amount | Shares | Purchase price | From selection |
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